Comments on: Smart Money Index: Accumulation During Decline

by: Bourne

Thu, 13 Mar 2008 16:28:47 +0000

Ha, ha. Cough, cough, really ))

Well, I try to understand what the path upwards would be, and the downwards one, also.

For me, breaking down all the technical suggestions of a mid or short term bottom would require a really big black swan. I mean, a chain reaction from Carlyle to X to Y to Ztearnz to Lehman… that is, a good old 87 crash style.

No big black swan like this so far. Not impossible, but…

As for a bullish bouncing, I was trying to figure out what the hell could drive it, given the widely known ugly circumstances.

One possible answer, I have found via Alea blog: “Fed kills Carlyle”.

What if Fed movement has as a consequence that medium size vertebrates like Carlyle are chopped into filet mignon in order to feed the ravine of the big predators? That could make sense.

In any case, is the only good bullish bouncing hypothesis I have so far. Even if it is right, I don’t mean that everything is quite rosy now (as S&P has suggested just a moment ago). Just a possible fundamental explanation for an eventual counter-intuitive counter-trend rally.

by: The ghost of xmas past

Thu, 13 Mar 2008 15:43:13 +0000

check the label it’s 89.8 on stockcharts

…plus I could have typed that better to begin with.

Damn foreign keyboards.

“I think it only could be driven by a black swan event as a cascade of margin calls-defaults.”

*cough* Carlyle *cough*

by: Bourne

Thu, 13 Mar 2008 11:34:34 +0000

?? My $NYUPV/$NYTV chart says from 0,11 to 0,90.
Some pullback in 1-3 days would be normal. New lows in similar short span, despite the rest of indicators pointed by Babak, could would be disastrous. I think it only could be driven by a black swan event as a cascade of margin calls-defaults.

by: The ghost of xmas past

Thu, 13 Mar 2008 08:10:59 +0000

Bah! stockcharts $NYUPV/$NYTV says �.8… close but no cigar. Is this a pattern failure? back to the lows? cumulative breadth looks terrible.

by: Dan

Wed, 12 Mar 2008 20:55:10 +0000

I think in the next 2 years the stock market will crash and a depression will hit hard and the dollar will be below 23 cents.

by: Bill K

Wed, 12 Mar 2008 14:29:53 +0000

Bad news for Bulls. This is the 3rd time in recent history that the Fed has come in right at the point where we are going to break down to new lows and tried to save the market. For those who only look at charts and don’t consider any other information, this may seem great, the double bottom theory looks like it had a great start yesterday by just looking at the chart. But in my opinion these attempted technical saves by the fed do more harm then good. What he is doing may or may not help the economy/market short or even long term, that remains to be seen. But I beleive we still have to go through the panic and pain necessary to put in a real bottom, not a fed induced fake double bottom. Having said that, I feel this dead fed (not cat) bounce will roll over quickly and we will go back to the course we were on of putting in a new lower bottom.

by: Bourne

Wed, 12 Mar 2008 11:58:36 +0000

Seemingly so. Check $NYUPV/$NYTV in Stockcharts. Last 2 instances were in august 07.
I expect the most serious attempt of a bouncing since august, but also more disappointing or weaker (and/or shorter) than most bulls could wish. Check out the equity put call ratio evolution for optimism figures.

by: The ghost of xmas past

Wed, 12 Mar 2008 11:38:21 +0000

So, did we get a 90-90 up day yesterday? Are we off and racing? I noticed it opened up, way up, and finished up - so the amateurs and the pros are on the same page now or at least yesterday…