Comments on: Snap Back Rally Arrives As Expected, Now What? http://www.tradersnarrative.com/snap-back-rally-arrives-as-expected-now-what-1903.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Sat, 21 Nov 2009 23:18:55 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: Tyler Lang http://www.tradersnarrative.com/snap-back-rally-arrives-as-expected-now-what-1903.html#comment-34946 Thu, 02 Oct 2008 14:39:51 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/snap-back-rally-arrives-as-expected-now-what-1903.html#comment-34946 Babak, I have asked a few friends about the P/C ratio not spiking and nobody has a decent answer. The best response I got was "You can always be sure of one thing in a panic market. The numbers and indicators like put/call ratios don’t matter much." Did you get any insight from Jason at sentimentrader.com? tyler Babak,

I have asked a few friends about the P/C ratio not spiking and nobody has a decent answer. The best response I got was “You can always be sure of one thing in a panic market. The numbers and indicators like put/call ratios don’t matter much.”

Did you get any insight from Jason at sentimentrader.com?

tyler

]]> by: Tyler Lang http://www.tradersnarrative.com/snap-back-rally-arrives-as-expected-now-what-1903.html#comment-34937 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 20:43:49 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/snap-back-rally-arrives-as-expected-now-what-1903.html#comment-34937 Yeah, I don't buy that argument either. I sent out a few emails also to some others and I'll let you know if a decent thought pops up. That being said, the indicators are still at the bullish end of the range...just not super extreme. Regardless, it still felt rather like a washout on monday and a lot of other indicators are at extremes. tyler Yeah, I don’t buy that argument either. I sent out a few emails also to some others and I’ll let you know if a decent thought pops up.

That being said, the indicators are still at the bullish end of the range…just not super extreme. Regardless, it still felt rather like a washout on monday and a lot of other indicators are at extremes.

tyler

]]> by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/snap-back-rally-arrives-as-expected-now-what-1903.html#comment-34936 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 20:06:37 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/snap-back-rally-arrives-as-expected-now-what-1903.html#comment-34936 Dean, yes this is unusual. The CBOE put call ratio can at times not coincide with panic but the ISEE certainly has - at least in its short history. But to clarify, I'm not looking at option volume but simply the ratio of puts to calls traded. Tyler, it is just weird. I've been in touch with Jason from sentimentrader.com who is a very smart guy and he also mentioned that he noticed it and can't explain it. Others have contacted me to propose that it means that the public is now all of a sudden watching the sentiment data and therefore, preempting any sort of panic - making this indicator obsolete. Personally, I don't buy that yet. Dean, yes this is unusual. The CBOE put call ratio can at times not coincide with panic but the ISEE certainly has - at least in its short history. But to clarify, I’m not looking at option volume but simply the ratio of puts to calls traded.

Tyler, it is just weird. I’ve been in touch with Jason from sentimentrader.com who is a very smart guy and he also mentioned that he noticed it and can’t explain it. Others have contacted me to propose that it means that the public is now all of a sudden watching the sentiment data and therefore, preempting any sort of panic - making this indicator obsolete. Personally, I don’t buy that yet.

]]> by: Tyler Lang http://www.tradersnarrative.com/snap-back-rally-arrives-as-expected-now-what-1903.html#comment-34935 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 19:14:15 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/snap-back-rally-arrives-as-expected-now-what-1903.html#comment-34935 Babak, I also noticed the Put/Call & ISEE putting in unimpressive figures and am as confused by this as you. Volatility has spiked, most other sentiment indicators are extremely bearish and yet this isn't falling in line. The market rarely bottoms or tops exactly as it has done in the past. Perhaps this is the way that this market will leave chumps like us behind...while we wait for put/calls to spike, the market will take off. Only after the fact will we discover why it suddenly became obsolete. Or perhaps it's not obsolete and there is still a lot of fear that needs to enter the system (i.e. another legdown). That being said, it feels like an LTCM is waiting to be announced. The quarter just ended and hedge fund results should be trickling in. tyler Babak,

I also noticed the Put/Call & ISEE putting in unimpressive figures and am as confused by this as you. Volatility has spiked, most other sentiment indicators are extremely bearish and yet this isn’t falling in line. The market rarely bottoms or tops exactly as it has done in the past. Perhaps this is the way that this market will leave chumps like us behind…while we wait for put/calls to spike, the market will take off. Only after the fact will we discover why it suddenly became obsolete. Or perhaps it’s not obsolete and there is still a lot of fear that needs to enter the system (i.e. another legdown).

That being said, it feels like an LTCM is waiting to be announced. The quarter just ended and hedge fund results should be trickling in.

tyler

]]> by: Trading System Development http://www.tradersnarrative.com/snap-back-rally-arrives-as-expected-now-what-1903.html#comment-34931 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 04:33:41 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/snap-back-rally-arrives-as-expected-now-what-1903.html#comment-34931 Hi, Your first section on option volume intrigues me. are you saying you have not seen this sort of action before? The reason I ask is because I have noticed that option volume can be quite telling, if market makers in particular are very certain of a turn in the markets. They will buy up options and futures, leaving the cash market alone I have only read this through studying Tom Williams, and in recent times seen it happen, even at the highs during this near market where put option volume was quite excessive Cheers Dean Hi,
Your first section on option volume intrigues me.

are you saying you have not seen this sort of action before?

The reason I ask is because I have noticed that option volume can be quite telling, if market makers in particular are very certain of a turn in the markets. They will buy up options and futures, leaving the cash market alone

I have only read this through studying Tom Williams, and in recent times seen it happen, even at the highs during this near market where put option volume was quite excessive

Cheers
Dean

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