Comments on: S&P 500 Buy Signal That’s Worked Since 1950’s http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-buy-signal-thats-worked-since-1950s-2810.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Thu, 18 Mar 2010 13:08:15 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-buy-signal-thats-worked-since-1950s-2810.html#comment-52232 Sat, 01 Aug 2009 03:14:30 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-buy-signal-thats-worked-since-1950s-2810.html#comment-52232 Mihai, the study using the Dow does go back that far. Buy Signal 12 Months 6 Months 3 Months Feb. 18, 1935 43.10% 19.09% 8.06% Apr. 19, 1933 54.47% 23.53% 51.63% Aug. 29, 1932 37.72% -31.68% -21.87% Aug. 18, 1924 35.82% 14.36% 5.46% Dec. 12, 1921 21.89% 12.53% 8.12% Mihai, the study using the Dow does go back that far.

Buy Signal 12 Months 6 Months 3 Months
Feb. 18, 1935 43.10% 19.09% 8.06%
Apr. 19, 1933 54.47% 23.53% 51.63%
Aug. 29, 1932 37.72% -31.68% -21.87%
Aug. 18, 1924 35.82% 14.36% 5.46%
Dec. 12, 1921 21.89% 12.53% 8.12%

]]> by: tekram http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-buy-signal-thats-worked-since-1950s-2810.html#comment-52198 Fri, 31 Jul 2009 23:43:44 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-buy-signal-thats-worked-since-1950s-2810.html#comment-52198 Charts haven't changed that much in 80 years. There will always be somebody trading the moving averages, whether trading apples or oranges. Do the study for 1929 crash and you could see a 37.18% by the summer of 1933 with a caveat of initial draw down around the first 180 days. Charts haven’t changed that much in 80 years. There will always be somebody trading the moving averages, whether trading apples or oranges.

Do the study for 1929 crash and you could see a 37.18% by the summer of 1933 with a caveat of initial draw down around the first 180 days.

]]> by: Jim http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-buy-signal-thats-worked-since-1950s-2810.html#comment-52190 Fri, 31 Jul 2009 20:22:52 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-buy-signal-thats-worked-since-1950s-2810.html#comment-52190 Mihai, those are interesting data points. -13% is not too scary; I wouldn't buy LEAP puts if I thought that was the worst-case downside a year out, for example. Mihai, those are interesting data points. -13% is not too scary; I wouldn’t buy LEAP puts if I thought that was the worst-case downside a year out, for example.

]]> by: tradeking13 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-buy-signal-thats-worked-since-1950s-2810.html#comment-52188 Fri, 31 Jul 2009 13:23:49 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-buy-signal-thats-worked-since-1950s-2810.html#comment-52188 @Mihai Radu I agree. Too many are using data points from past business cycle recessions. This is a credit recession. Apples and oranges. @Mihai Radu

I agree. Too many are using data points from past business cycle recessions. This is a credit recession. Apples and oranges.

]]> by: Mihai Radu http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-buy-signal-thats-worked-since-1950s-2810.html#comment-52186 Fri, 31 Jul 2009 12:57:16 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-buy-signal-thats-worked-since-1950s-2810.html#comment-52186 The analysis is good but takes in consideration wrong time periods. This crisis is more like 29-32 or like 39-42. Would have been interesting to look at those specific periods what happend. Well I looked for myself and from where we stand, over the next 12 months there is a downside potential of -13% -14%. As you can see the result are completely diferent. The assumptions are the key for a good analysis... The analysis is good but takes in consideration wrong time periods. This crisis is more like 29-32 or like 39-42. Would have been interesting to look at those specific periods what happend. Well I looked for myself and from where we stand, over the next 12 months there is a downside potential of -13% -14%. As you can see the result are completely diferent. The assumptions are the key for a good analysis…

]]> by: tradeking13 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-buy-signal-thats-worked-since-1950s-2810.html#comment-52176 Fri, 31 Jul 2009 05:48:42 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-buy-signal-thats-worked-since-1950s-2810.html#comment-52176 Seems like a relatively low sample size from which to be basing investment decisions. Seems like a relatively low sample size from which to be basing investment decisions.

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