Comments on: S&P 500: Forming A Head & Shoulder Pattern? http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-forming-a-head-shoulder-pattern-2244.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Sun, 21 Mar 2010 04:34:26 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: RDuke http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-forming-a-head-shoulder-pattern-2244.html#comment-36813 Fri, 30 Jan 2009 13:56:31 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-forming-a-head-shoulder-pattern-2244.html#comment-36813 Looks like we are ready to go ... to the downside http://thetraderblog.com/?p=1936 Looks like we are ready to go … to the downside http://thetraderblog.com/?p=1936

]]> by: john b http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-forming-a-head-shoulder-pattern-2244.html#comment-36797 Thu, 29 Jan 2009 18:43:33 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-forming-a-head-shoulder-pattern-2244.html#comment-36797 I'm going with the symmetrical trangle I’m going with the symmetrical trangle

]]> by: Guru http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-forming-a-head-shoulder-pattern-2244.html#comment-36787 Thu, 29 Jan 2009 03:22:56 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-forming-a-head-shoulder-pattern-2244.html#comment-36787 I'm voting for the symmetrical triangle interpretation. Based on other metrics like the number of stocks crossing above longer-term the 60-day and 90-day moving averages (see my analysis at www.stockchartist.blogspot.com), I'd say the breakout will be to the upside. But it will soon run into resistance at around 975 where it will retreat and test the upper boundary of that triangle for its support .... and that's when the real test of this bottom building will take place. I’m voting for the symmetrical triangle interpretation. Based on other metrics like the number of stocks crossing above longer-term the 60-day and 90-day moving averages (see my analysis at www.stockchartist.blogspot.com), I’d say the breakout will be to the upside. But it will soon run into resistance at around 975 where it will retreat and test the upper boundary of that triangle for its support …. and that’s when the real test of this bottom building will take place.

]]> by: john b http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-forming-a-head-shoulder-pattern-2244.html#comment-36785 Wed, 28 Jan 2009 22:52:17 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-forming-a-head-shoulder-pattern-2244.html#comment-36785 The symmetrical triangle shows up much better on a WEEKLY CHART. As we all know there are 3 outcomes from a genuine symmetrical triangle 1 Prices dribble to the end of the pattern which then has no interpretative value. 2 Prices breakout to the upside on VERY HEAVY VOLUME which is bullish. 3 Breakout to the downside on ANY level of volume which is bearish. We all wait with interest The symmetrical triangle shows up much better on a WEEKLY CHART.

As we all know there are 3 outcomes from a genuine symmetrical triangle

1 Prices dribble to the end of the pattern which then has no interpretative value.

2 Prices breakout to the upside on VERY HEAVY VOLUME which is bullish.

3 Breakout to the downside on ANY level of volume which is bearish.

We all wait with interest

]]> by: RDuke http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-forming-a-head-shoulder-pattern-2244.html#comment-36781 Wed, 28 Jan 2009 20:59:30 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-forming-a-head-shoulder-pattern-2244.html#comment-36781 Great chart, but I agree with john b: http://thetraderblog.com/?p=1916 looks like a great symmetrical triangle forming, I am biased for a downside break. Great chart, but I agree with john b: http://thetraderblog.com/?p=1916 looks like a great symmetrical triangle forming, I am biased for a downside break.

]]> by: john b http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-forming-a-head-shoulder-pattern-2244.html#comment-36773 Wed, 28 Jan 2009 17:25:24 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-forming-a-head-shoulder-pattern-2244.html#comment-36773 Try a symmetrical triangle instead of reverse head and shoulders. This is a much better fit and allows for a breakdown as well as a 'breakup. and right now requires only light volume to keep evolving. Try a symmetrical triangle instead of reverse head and shoulders. This is a much better fit and allows for a breakdown as well as a ‘breakup. and right now requires only light volume to keep evolving.

]]> by: pamtonia http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-forming-a-head-shoulder-pattern-2244.html#comment-36772 Wed, 28 Jan 2009 16:42:16 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-forming-a-head-shoulder-pattern-2244.html#comment-36772 I had a similar analysis on 1/23/2009, based not on volume, but on Options market and the New Low statistic. Please refer to http://pamtonia.googlepages.com/notes_1 I had a similar analysis on 1/23/2009, based not on volume, but on Options market and the New Low statistic.

Please refer to http://pamtonia.googlepages.com/notes_1

]]> by: BourningMarkets http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-forming-a-head-shoulder-pattern-2244.html#comment-36771 Wed, 28 Jan 2009 16:15:06 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-forming-a-head-shoulder-pattern-2244.html#comment-36771 You're right, that's an inverted H&S pattern with coherent volume. I do hope that, somehow, it confirms and achieve it's measure objective (vertical measurement from neckline to bottom) at about 1,200. It could do that without reversing the major bearish trend. I do not expect to reverse major trend right now. I think that would be unrealistic. But even if I'm right on major trend, the H&S fulfilling would be a very welcomed relief in the violence of this epic global bearish market and economy. Now, being prudent, consider the opposite possibility. The optimism that you point out suggests the possibility of a pattern failure. Whenever a pattern confirms breaking a neckline but fails when pulling back to it and crosses back again, the prior trend resumes, generally with a veangance. If it breaks upside, first reaction could be very bullish. But the real test would be the the pullback. If this is the development, I would bear in mind a John Mauldin saying: "bearish markets are driven by a series of disappointments". And only end when almost nobody believes in a reversal anymore, and any bullish development is generally disregarded in disgust. You can check de SX7P, european banks index. I can see up to 4-5 reversal patterns' failures, in general H&S. But I am open to both possibilities. And the first would be a relief for everybody. So watch out and good luck from Madrid. You’re right, that’s an inverted H&S pattern with coherent volume.

I do hope that, somehow, it confirms and achieve it’s measure objective (vertical measurement from neckline to bottom) at about 1,200. It could do that without reversing the major bearish trend. I do not expect to reverse major trend right now. I think that would be unrealistic. But even if I’m right on major trend, the H&S fulfilling would be a very welcomed relief in the violence of this epic global bearish market and economy.

Now, being prudent, consider the opposite possibility. The optimism that you point out suggests the possibility of a pattern failure. Whenever a pattern confirms breaking a neckline but fails when pulling back to it and crosses back again, the prior trend resumes, generally with a veangance. If it breaks upside, first reaction could be very bullish. But the real test would be the the pullback. If this is the development, I would bear in mind a John Mauldin saying: “bearish markets are driven by a series of disappointments”. And only end when almost nobody believes in a reversal anymore, and any bullish development is generally disregarded in disgust.

You can check de SX7P, european banks index. I can see up to 4-5 reversal patterns’ failures, in general H&S. But I am open to both possibilities. And the first would be a relief for everybody.

So watch out and good luck from Madrid.

]]> by: Be http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-forming-a-head-shoulder-pattern-2244.html#comment-36769 Wed, 28 Jan 2009 15:55:42 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-forming-a-head-shoulder-pattern-2244.html#comment-36769 That looks more like a prick and balls pattern to me. That looks more like a prick and balls pattern to me.

]]> by: kissandfly http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-forming-a-head-shoulder-pattern-2244.html#comment-36760 Wed, 28 Jan 2009 11:09:12 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sp-500-forming-a-head-shoulder-pattern-2244.html#comment-36760 Head and shoulder in a bearish market does not mean down ? Head and shoulder in a bearish market does not mean down ?

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