Comments on: The Amazing Four Year Stock Market Cycle http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-amazing-four-year-stock-market-cycle-867.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Sun, 08 Nov 2009 05:05:23 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: Senta http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-amazing-four-year-stock-market-cycle-867.html#comment-55802 Sun, 18 Oct 2009 17:56:59 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-amazing-four-year-stock-market-cycle-867.html#comment-55802 Ran into this excellent post via google - the 4 year is a plausible working theory (particularly if you combine it with the coppock guide). My research suggests that the coppock oscillator dips below zero every 4.03 years (i.e. it has gone below zero 27 times in the last 109 years - a sustained rise from zero is a buying signal). Assuming march 2009 as a low for this cycle - we can expect the next selling opportunity in the 2012 - 2013 period and a buying opportunity in the 2013 - 2014 period. Ran into this excellent post via google - the 4 year is a plausible working theory (particularly if you combine it with the coppock guide). My research suggests that the coppock oscillator dips below zero every 4.03 years (i.e. it has gone below zero 27 times in the last 109 years - a sustained rise from zero is a buying signal).

Assuming march 2009 as a low for this cycle - we can expect the next selling opportunity in the 2012 - 2013 period and a buying opportunity in the 2013 - 2014 period.

]]> by: frankinstein http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-amazing-four-year-stock-market-cycle-867.html#comment-35185 Tue, 21 Oct 2008 15:16:02 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-amazing-four-year-stock-market-cycle-867.html#comment-35185 very interesting.I am glad you have writen this as I have been looking back and seeing this and other pattern's for quite some time. very interesting.I am glad you have writen this as I have been looking back and seeing this and other pattern’s for quite some time.

]]> by: Cheer Up - It’s An Election year http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-amazing-four-year-stock-market-cycle-867.html#comment-27111 Fri, 18 Jan 2008 22:20:21 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-amazing-four-year-stock-market-cycle-867.html#comment-27111 [...] Like the 4 year cycle, an election year is a powerful cyclical pattern in the market: [...] […] Like the 4 year cycle, an election year is a powerful cyclical pattern in the market: […]

]]> by: em http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-amazing-four-year-stock-market-cycle-867.html#comment-26261 Sun, 06 Jan 2008 23:04:54 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-amazing-four-year-stock-market-cycle-867.html#comment-26261 <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0481369/">The Number 23</a> <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0138704/">Pi</a> Add the digits of 23, minus one, 2 3-1=4 !! Sorry to rain on the party... 5/27 (track record of 4-year cycle) =&#62; wrong almost 20% of the time Care to sell some cheap puts? The Number 23
Pi

Add the digits of 23, minus one, 2 3-1=4 !!

Sorry to rain on the party…

5/27 (track record of 4-year cycle) => wrong almost 20% of the time

Care to sell some cheap puts?

]]> by: Ten Year Stock Market Cycle http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-amazing-four-year-stock-market-cycle-867.html#comment-26149 Fri, 04 Jan 2008 04:52:56 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-amazing-four-year-stock-market-cycle-867.html#comment-26149 [...] Since the stock market is just another human activity, it too has patterns and cycles. There are many different ones spanning the short term (daily ebb and flow of intra-day trading) to the very very long term (kondratiev or sometimes: Kondratieff waves). Previously I mentioned the four year cycle and showed a long term graph of its uncanny timing ability. [...] […] Since the stock market is just another human activity, it too has patterns and cycles. There are many different ones spanning the short term (daily ebb and flow of intra-day trading) to the very very long term (kondratiev or sometimes: Kondratieff waves). Previously I mentioned the four year cycle and showed a long term graph of its uncanny timing ability. […]

]]> by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-amazing-four-year-stock-market-cycle-867.html#comment-6544 Mon, 14 May 2007 19:32:55 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-amazing-four-year-stock-market-cycle-867.html#comment-6544 John, 1. I don't have that graph handy 2. yes, a reader from Sweden pointed that out also (via email) Herb, thanks. Sometimes the simplest works best. According to Hulbert, one of the best timing newsletters only relies on a simple MA similar to what you suggest. John,
1. I don’t have that graph handy 2. yes, a reader from Sweden pointed that out also (via email)

Herb, thanks. Sometimes the simplest works best. According to Hulbert, one of the best timing newsletters only relies on a simple MA similar to what you suggest.

]]> by: Herb Geissler http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-amazing-four-year-stock-market-cycle-867.html#comment-6539 Mon, 14 May 2007 15:16:03 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-amazing-four-year-stock-market-cycle-867.html#comment-6539 Every year, the stock market has two corrections: a mild one in the spring and a more severe one in the fall. Every decade, the stock market has two severe corrections (called recessions) caused by the inevitable movement of the economy and its business cycles. At the peak, overly strong demand pushes price levels high enough to throttle demand and cause excess production to produce excess inventories. It usually takes 12 to 18 months of economic recession to correct the excesses built up during the 4 to 6 year bull market. For individual investors, it is easy to spot the turning points at the crests and troughs in the 4 to 6 year economic cycle. Simply calculate the 12 month moving average of the value of your favorite index fund. Switch into money-market funds (or the new bear ETFs) whenever the index is below its 12 month moving average. The more widely followed 200 trading day moving average gets you in and out of the market sooner, but is a little less convenient to calculate (unless you use Stockcharts.com or a similar charting website). Right now, the Russell 2000 small cap index, my personal favorite, would have to slide down 8% to get below its 200 day MA. Every year, the stock market has two corrections: a mild one in the spring and a more severe one in the fall.

Every decade, the stock market has two severe corrections (called recessions) caused by the inevitable movement of the economy and its business cycles. At the peak, overly strong demand pushes price levels high enough to throttle demand and cause excess production to produce excess inventories. It usually takes 12 to 18 months of economic recession to correct the excesses built up during the 4 to 6 year bull market.

For individual investors, it is easy to spot the turning points at the crests and troughs in the 4 to 6 year economic cycle. Simply calculate the 12 month moving average of the value of your favorite index fund. Switch into money-market funds (or the new bear ETFs) whenever the index is below its 12 month moving average.

The more widely followed 200 trading day moving average gets you in and out of the market sooner, but is a little less convenient to calculate (unless you use Stockcharts.com or a similar charting website). Right now, the Russell 2000 small cap index, my personal favorite, would have to slide down 8% to get below its 200 day MA.

]]> by: My Open Wallet http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-amazing-four-year-stock-market-cycle-867.html#comment-6537 Mon, 14 May 2007 13:32:53 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-amazing-four-year-stock-market-cycle-867.html#comment-6537 <strong>Carnival of Personal Finance #100...</strong> Welcome to the Carnival of Personal Finance, C-Note Edition! Yes, this is the one-hundredth Carnival. Think of the hundreds of bloggers who have participated over the past almost two years! The hundreds and thousands of posts! The hundreds and thousa..... Carnival of Personal Finance #100…

Welcome to the Carnival of Personal Finance, C-Note Edition! Yes, this is the one-hundredth Carnival. Think of the hundreds of bloggers who have participated over the past almost two years! The hundreds and thousands of posts! The hundreds and thousa…..

]]> by: John Sibley http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-amazing-four-year-stock-market-cycle-867.html#comment-6526 Mon, 14 May 2007 09:28:45 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-amazing-four-year-stock-market-cycle-867.html#comment-6526 1. The second graph in the article should show the distribution of gains averaged over groups of four years, not ten years, lest readers become concerned that the four-year period graph might invalidate the four-year cycle. 2. Even if the true averages of the performance of each year in a decade are actually equal, averages calculated from samples of decades usually aren't. Thus, it requires a statistical analysis to justify concluding that unequal averages calculated from a sample of decades would stay unequal if calculated from an infinite number of decades. What I'm suggesting is that the extra work required in getting the ten-year period plot to prove anything would be better directed toward drawing the four-year cycle plot. 3. I'm not debunking the four year cycle. I would just appreciate an upgrade in the presentation of the second graph, so that it's as clear and telling as the first. 1. The second graph in the article should show the distribution of gains averaged over groups of four years, not ten years, lest readers become concerned that the four-year period graph might invalidate the four-year cycle.

2. Even if the true averages of the performance of each year in a decade are actually equal, averages calculated from samples of decades usually aren’t. Thus, it requires a statistical analysis to justify concluding that unequal averages calculated from a sample of decades would stay unequal if calculated from an infinite number of decades. What I’m suggesting is that the extra work required in getting the ten-year period plot to prove anything would be better directed toward drawing the four-year cycle plot.

3. I’m not debunking the four year cycle. I would just appreciate an upgrade in the presentation of the second graph, so that it’s as clear and telling as the first.

]]>