Interesting chart but it seems that almost all the charts and graphs seems to occur within arguably the greatest Secular bull market ever - from the Great Depression to the inflation adjusted top in 2001 or the nominal double top in 2007. What is troubling about all these intermediate recessions has been inventory/manufacturing led while the 2 bookend Great Depression/Recession are credit driven. To this date I still believe that we have not resolve this credit issue. Too much has been swept under the rug but like good housekeeper knows, eventually those dust and trash will spill out or someone will point out the obvious bulge in the rug. What I am afraid off is that we will vacillate between boom bust events with increased frequency as well as amplitude until something big just blow up and we have to take the trash out. Of course on our daily and intermediate trading we have to temper our long-term forecasts with the reality that we must be nimble enough to jump off the waves before it break our neck.

Thanks for the time you put into gathering and interpreting a lot of the data out there.

Mike