Comments on: The Fertilizer Commodity Bubble: Potash (POT) http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-fertilizer-commodity-bubble-potash-pot-1661.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Sun, 21 Mar 2010 19:36:30 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: Howardr http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-fertilizer-commodity-bubble-potash-pot-1661.html#comment-35155 Sun, 19 Oct 2008 20:47:39 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-fertilizer-commodity-bubble-potash-pot-1661.html#comment-35155 Looks like Harold has been more than correct; the bubble has indeed burst. If only I had read this, and other forecasts about POT that I previously missed, a few months ago. So, Harold, what do you see next on the horizon, either bursting or booming? Looks like Harold has been more than correct; the bubble has indeed burst. If only I had read this, and other forecasts about POT that I previously missed, a few months ago.

So, Harold, what do you see next on the horizon, either bursting or booming?

]]> by: George http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-fertilizer-commodity-bubble-potash-pot-1661.html#comment-34287 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 13:50:01 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-fertilizer-commodity-bubble-potash-pot-1661.html#comment-34287 Why is potash based fertilizer - which due to limited supply and long ramp ups to bring more production online has tripled in price - in the same league as "commodities"? Commodities can go up and down when people speculate on them or when there's fluctuating supply/production due to natural or economic conditions. In the case of potash and oil there's high demand and non-renewable limited supply - people need fertilzer even more than they need oil and until there's a huge reduction in the human population (inevitable I think: hopefully a non-catastophic version, instead of Easter Island style) demand will be constant and growing. Of course everyone could go vegan and quit giving perfectly good food to vast numbers of cows but that'll take a while. Right now Potash Corp. has 75% of the world's excess capacity in fertilizer and is set to make a lot of money of all the people who are eating.. Folks are investing in **the company's ability to make money** here not the price of the commodity. They will make money and lots of it I just wish there were fewer people buying shares in companies these days. Every middle class joe or jane with a computer thinks they have the right to do it. To my mind the equity markets should be limited to people or funds with over 10million in net worth and put/calll contracts should be limited. Give a bundh of unwashed people the ability to make naked puts and you are going to get lots of people trying to "move the sentiment" of the market and create feelingsof fear and greed amongst investors. The decision makers who manage larger funds or who are wealthy are more rational and we wouldn't have had this silly run up if they were by rights and privilege allowed to rule the system. Individual trading by the unwealthy should be made illegal. Why is potash based fertilizer - which due to limited supply and long ramp ups to bring more production online has tripled in price - in the same league as “commodities”?

Commodities can go up and down when people speculate on them or when there’s fluctuating supply/production due to natural or economic conditions. In the case of potash and oil there’s high demand and non-renewable limited supply - people need fertilzer even more than they need oil and until there’s a huge reduction in the human population (inevitable I think: hopefully a non-catastophic version, instead of Easter Island style) demand will be constant and growing.

Of course everyone could go vegan and quit giving perfectly good food to vast numbers of cows but that’ll take a while. Right now Potash Corp. has 75% of the world’s excess capacity in fertilizer and is set to make a lot of money of all the people who are eating.. Folks are investing in **the company’s ability to make money** here not the price of the commodity.

They will make money and lots of it I just wish there were fewer people buying shares in companies these days. Every middle class joe or jane with a computer thinks they have the right to do it. To my mind the equity markets should be limited to people or funds with over 10million in net worth and put/calll contracts should be limited. Give a bundh of unwashed people the ability to make naked puts and you are going to get lots of people trying to “move the sentiment” of the market and create feelingsof fear and greed amongst investors. The decision makers who manage larger funds or who are wealthy are more rational and we wouldn’t have had this silly run up if they were by rights and privilege allowed to rule the system.

Individual trading by the unwealthy should be made illegal.

]]> by: Ryan P. http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-fertilizer-commodity-bubble-potash-pot-1661.html#comment-32903 Fri, 02 May 2008 00:43:33 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-fertilizer-commodity-bubble-potash-pot-1661.html#comment-32903 Harold, I thought this is a personal observation page owned by the writer. What is wrong with "absurd" observation anyway? We all do it time and time. Also, be specific of your claim of lies with reliable sources, numbers, projections, etc. Otherwise, your observation on Babak's "absurd" observation is absurd. Harold,
I thought this is a personal observation page owned by the writer. What is wrong with “absurd” observation anyway? We all do it time and time. Also, be specific of your claim of lies with reliable sources, numbers, projections, etc. Otherwise, your observation on Babak’s “absurd” observation is absurd.

]]> by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-fertilizer-commodity-bubble-potash-pot-1661.html#comment-32902 Thu, 01 May 2008 23:39:38 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-fertilizer-commodity-bubble-potash-pot-1661.html#comment-32902 Harold, what exactly did I "lie" about? could you be a bit more vague? thanks Harold,
what exactly did I “lie” about? could you be a bit more vague? thanks

]]> by: Harold Postchy http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-fertilizer-commodity-bubble-potash-pot-1661.html#comment-32901 Thu, 01 May 2008 21:38:00 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-fertilizer-commodity-bubble-potash-pot-1661.html#comment-32901 I’m sure your hedgie colts will love for this full of absurd personal observations. If you hade done your homework you’d know that Potash is not Ethanol, PV/Solar cell to flood the market and ever become oversupply commodities; it’s a precious source that like crude oil & N. Gas with limited reserves in the globe. Where did you dig out these nonsense lies? You call yourself an analyst? Off course we all know you’ll be handsomely rewarded to be an scum with an unlimited resources. You’ll be exposed soon, might as well close your site. After you cash in your reward of your lies, look for a real job this time. I’m sure your hedgie colts will love for this full of absurd personal observations. If you hade done your homework you’d know that Potash is not Ethanol, PV/Solar cell to flood the market and ever become oversupply commodities; it’s a precious source that like crude oil & N. Gas with limited reserves in the globe. Where did you dig out these nonsense lies? You call yourself an analyst? Off course we all know you’ll be handsomely rewarded to be an scum with an unlimited resources. You’ll be exposed soon, might as well close your site. After you cash in your reward of your lies, look for a real job this time.

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