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The Most Important Chart Of The Century? at Trader’s Narrative

The Most Important Chart Of The Century?

This is a guest post by Bud Conrad, Editor of The Casey Report:

I’ve seen this chart on more blogs and pointed to by more people than any chart I can think of. It is given the name of THE Most Important Chart of the CENTURY, complete with capital letters to add to the hype.

I get frustrated with economists bashing each other, as none of them really know the future, and the sport is rather pointless. But this chart has gotten too much hype, so I just have to let a little air out of its balloon.

GDP growth compared to debt growth Casey Apr 2010

As presented, the chart makes the point that the economy is way off and things are much worse than ever. While I generally agree that we have serious economic problems, and the increase in debt is not helping, the chart is flawed in ways that mislead – it is definitely not the “chart of the century.”

The chart presents a fairly straightforward calculation that divides the increase in GDP by the increase in debt. The point it looks to make is that we have been getting a smaller and smaller increase in economic activity (GDP) for the amount of debt we are adding. At that level, the point is valid.

But the big spike to negative territory, what is that supposed to mean? At first blush, a viewer might guess that adding more debt actually made the economy worse. But that isn’t what’s going on here, because the growth in debt has been decreasing. And despite appearances to the contrary, GDP has ceased to decline and is up slightly.

What’s going on? Simply that the improvement in GDP and debt, small as they are, skew the ratios so that the line drops like a rock. In other words, the small differences in numbers around changes in the economic inputs cause spurious graphs in ratios like the one used here. The supposed big spike downward is actually reporting on a slight improvement in the economy.

I don’t like just tearing apart work I generally agree with, but the hubris of calling it the chart of the century got my dander up. If you really do look at the numbers, there is no justifying the hype around this chart.

As one more view, I developed a chart that overlays the same ratio but only including the private debt growth. It also shows the declining benefit of more debt, but then gets into the small numbers and negative growth that make the lines go screwy. The only point of the next chart is to show that the indicator is not reliable.

GDP growth odd results Casey Apr 2010

Having just trashed someone else’s work, I’d like to give you something to hang your hat on as to what’s up with the economy. Here’s my view of the same numbers, not as a ratio but rather a straight-up look at how much they are growing. It tells the story that things fell off a cliff in this crisis like they have never done before.

The chart shows total debt, private debt, and GDP. As you can see, they all collapsed in recent years. While you can see some recovery in the GDP, the picture remains weak. I think this a reasonable reflection of reality.

So I offer some process lessons: really look at the data to see what is actually behind a chart. And when someone claims to have the chart to end all charts, pull out your skepticism meter. But more important, I think, is to use the simplest presentation of data.

Speaking of simple presentations, the chart below from the St. Louis Fed emphasizes how the long-term effect of the crisis has piled up in the important area of unemployment. The number of long-term unemployed – those jobless for 27 weeks and over – increased by 414,000 in March to 6.5 million. In total, 44.1 percent of unemployed persons have been jobless for 27 weeks or more.
unemployment 27 weeks over StLouis Fed Apr 2010

You can read more of Bud Conrad’s analysis at The Casey Report.

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5 Responses to “The Most Important Chart Of The Century?”  

  1. 1 Wes

    The explanation need not be so complex. Debt contracted, becoming a negative number. Whenever you divide a positive number by a negative number, you get a negative result. End of story.

    What does it mean in the real world ? It means the chart is mislabeled, as no debt expansion occurred.

  2. 2 Andrew

    I agree with the title of this article. It’s quite sad when the American people don’t realize the debt vortex hole we’re in. I mean $107 trillion in unfunded liabilities and expenditures. Yeesh! Don’t people care anymore? Or does debt have no meaning anymore?

    Even though Moody’s doesn’t have any meaning anymore, them threatening to take away the U.S. AAA credit rating is a step in the right direction.

    The U.S. has so much debt that it only has two options because it’ll never be able to pay it all back: 1) Default on the debt and be honest FOR ONCE with the world that we can’t pay it back. 2) Print the money and pull a Weimar Republic.

  3. 3 i b wright

    Yeah, high powered money rose and money supply fell, private debt growth slowed or fell, so freaking what?!

    Is there anyone that doesn’t know that total debt including the present value of unfunded gov’t liabilities is huge and will never be paid back. Seriously.

    When it finally sinks in there will most likely be a crash of bonds with deflation, and huge real interest rates, and then what will the gov’t do? Odds are it will print to stop the deflation until it’s stopped.

    Just because it hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean it won’t. It took years for the real estate crash to come to fruition. there’s no reason to be surprised that it will take this one a while, too.

    Piling on debt and shifting resources to unproductive workers and gov’t is not a sound economic policy. Sooner or later it will hit the fan. Bank on it.

  4. 4 Dick Cheney

    Deficits Don’t Matter.

  5. 5 The General

    The huge drop in the “Most Important Chart” is simply explainable - When you divide a small insignificant number by another such number, you get something of little or no significance. I noticed this when I redid the calculations myself. But this whole exercise assumes that GDP delivered by the government is something valid. It is not. Go to ShadowStats and get a real GDP graph - you will see that GDP has been trending down since the early 80s at least, along a similar linear path to the “Most Important Chart”. It is actually -2 to -3% now.

    We now have about $56T in public and private debt. The cost per year of paying just the interest on this is about $3.8T, 1/4 the whole GDP. Debt began to ramp up in the early 80s and you can see the results of this - outsourcing, globalization, both parents having to work to maintain a standard of living, increasing pressures to tax, a ballooning of the prison population (cheap work) etc.

    But what is happening now? You are caught between a rock and a hard place - if you try to grow the economy, you grow the debt, and we are headed to a 2015 continual negative GDP (by the official #) on that trajectory. If you don’t grow and remain flat you are stuck in the mire. If you pay down the debt to a point that will help, this will be an enormous collapse.

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