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The Next President Of The United States at Trader’s Narrative




The Next President Of The United States


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There are just a few days left until we know who the next President of the USA will be. Here are two aggregations of multiple polls:

538 us electionFiveThirtyEight is a relatively new site which has gained a lot of attention because of their methodology. They assign each poll a weight based on its historical track record, the sample size, and the freshness of the poll.

They run a regression estimate based on the demographics in each state to account for outlier polls and to put the data its proper context.

Finally, 528 simulates the election 10,000 times for each update to provide a probabilistic assessment of outcomes based on a historical analysis of polling data since 1952.

The end result of all that? FiveThirtyEight is giving Obama a +96% chance of winning the election. This number fluctuates daily as new data is integrated. You can watch this and other information here.

But since this is a trading blog, lets take a look at the electronic markets where people don’t just give an opinion, they back it up with cold, hard cash. These “prediction markets” are also favoring Obama by a landslide.

Here is the intrade contract for Barack Obama, implying an 85% probability of winning:
Price for 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) at intrade.com

Here is the Iowa Electronic Market for the US election, winner take all:

iowa election predicton market

And here is betfair:
betfair next president

It seems like everyday another prominent Republican endorses Obama. People it seems, question his judgement, age and the tone of his campaign. The first and second go together because of his pick for VP, Sarah Palin, of course.

At first Palin energized the ailing McCain campaign but as people have gotten to know her more, she has become one of its biggest handicaps. From not knowing what the constitutional role of a VP is (”in charge of the US senate”), to wearing a $150,000 wardrobe and $22,000 make up artist while claiming to be a hockey mom, to not knowing what the 1st amendment means, to believing that the pledge of allegiance was written by the founding fathers, to not being able to name any media she reads, to not knowing any Supreme court cases other than Roe v. Wave, to not knowing the Bush doctrine…. need I go on?

I can’t blame anyone for being scared of this woman’s ignorance. As an average Canadian, even I know more about the United States and its constitution that her!

Who Wins? Who Loses?
Under an Obama administration the winners are clear, infrastructure companies, alternative energy companies like solar, wind, water/wave, etc. Defense spending and homeland security as well as big oil may have to butter their bread a little less.

What is amazing to me is that while the data historically has shown that Democratic governments have been a boon to the US economy, lowering unemployment, the deficit and even ushering in bull markets, the Republicans somehow have the image of being business friendly. Go figure.

While Obama’s provenance and religious leanings have been questioned, I find it rather odd because I find that that is one of his best strengths on the international front. Can you imagine the amount of goodwill that will be engendered in the Muslim world when the face that represents the people of the United States of America looks like them? What do you think that will say about the unity and diversity of the US? about its capacity for meritocracy? Maybe you Americans have never thought about it that way, but believe me, as an outsider, that is a major bonus that Barack Obama has.

Not that you should be voting for him based on that. Not at all. Vote based on the candidates’ judgements, platforms and ideas. If you are a US citizen, VOTE !!

Ronald Reagan Endorses Obama

Ronald Reagan did in fact endorse Obama. Ronald Prescott Reagan that is, the son of the former POTUS.

The only person it seems who hasn’t endorsed Obama is John McCain himself. Wouldn’t that be the ultimate move from a true “maverick”? to endorse your own opponent? ;)

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9 Responses to “The Next President Of The United States”  

  1. 1 Gary

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    at least some rednecks got this figured out

  2. 2 Robert

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    Obama is a cult figure long on generalities and short on specifics. He will lead his supporters to disillusionment and helplessness. Check out why people support Obama:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqAiarOhC2U

    Because he is pro-life, pro-war and picked Sarah Palin.

  3. 3 Nigel Eccles

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    Obama is trading at 90% with the Hubdub prediction market as well

    Plus there is a 22% chance that Obama wins 2/3rd of the electoral college vote

  4. 4 Babak

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    Robert, lol thanks for the clip. If you want to really plumb the depths of American intellect, check out videos on youtube for: rick mercer talking to americans
    The recent prank on Palin by two Montreal DJs is from a long tradition of Canadians making fun of their southern neighbors. This one is classic - and it even features Bush in his first presidential election. I love the kid at the end… maybe there’s hope for the US after all?

    Nigel, yes, I do believe it will be landslide but shhhh! it will more dramatic if few people expect it ;)

  5. 5 Dave bigos

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    Oh please as someone from the Chicago area BHO and his wife have
    done nothing be be what they were schooled to be Civil Rights Attorney’s.
    Be careful what you wish for for you are about to getit !!!!
    A socialist with many socialist and questionable friends
    he still claims live in his neighborhood !!!! Some neighborhood .
    BHO and his wife are the biggest most successful marketing
    event,project ,product or person ever.
    They will the help of their media comrades——
    have pulled off the greatest heist ever !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    No the Honorable President Regan would not approve
    of this person who shouts fairness and wealth redistribution.
    Protects criminals,wants to speak with terrorists,approves of
    partial birth abortion, increased taxation,protectionism
    and weakening our National Security.
    BHO does not even have a United States of America
    flag on his plane ??????
    Change you can count on
    DaveBigos

  6. 6 Babak

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    Dave, do you have a flag on your car? what about on your bicycle? and your helmet? does it have a flag? if it does, why is it so small?
    LoL

  7. 7 Paul

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    Babak,

    We in the US have a long history of making fun of Canadians. It’s funny to hear the Canadians brag about their socialist health care, then come to the US for tests or treatment. I like your blog for its investment content, but in my view, your political commentary detracts from it. Not sure what the purpose of doing it is….

  8. 8 Dave Bigos

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    Dave, do you have a flag on your car? what about on your bicycle? and your helmet? does it have a flag? if it does, why is it so small?

    I must answer this because I am not quiet nor shy about my allegiance to the United States of America.
    I do not have a bike or a helment . If I did it would be
    red white and blue !!!!
    What I do have is two flags displayed int he rear window of my car and a faded out USA decal put on right after 9/11.
    At the office I have an Eagle figurine,photos honoring our Military Personal, four flags two USA and two Great Britian
    stuck in a grass weaved ball.

    At home I have a flag hanging from the ovr hang of my home and another small memorial composed of small flags just stuck around the mail box for the victims of 9/11.

    This is my way of showing my Patriotism. I do believe all should be proud of their country and display some form of
    national pride toward it.
    Stand for something and do not be afraid to show it. I ask you when you do not show any patriotism ,what does say about the person ??? Now what if this person is going to be the President of your country ????
    God Bless America
    Dave Bigos Ssgt USAF 69-73

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