I took Saturday off, came in early Sunday morning to study and look what fell in my lap. Below are the results for Nov-Dec after an up Sept and a Down Oct. The Nov-Dec period was up 10 down 1, for an avg gain of 4.66%.

Dave notice 1973, another data point supporting our theory.

Year Sept Oct Nov-Dec
1954 8.31 -1.95 13.57
1955 1.13 -3.05 7.42
1967 3.28 -3.53 3.40
1970 3.41 -1.25 10.69
1973 4.01 -0.13 -9.92
1976 2.26 -2.22 4.43
1979 0.00 -6.86 6.01
1983 1.02 -1.52 0.84
1995 4.01 -0.50 5.92
1997 5.32 -3.45 6.10
2005 0.69 -1.77 3.40

I’m a little long and doing a little buying Sunday night.

I believe it is epiphany not epifhany

I had told Babak I would give him some end of the month comments. I sat down Thursday morning, (Oct 29) wrote this piece to send to Babak after the close on Friday. I went ahead and sent it to him Thursday afternoon to give him a chance to peruse, with the comment that 8 months in a row was contingent on close Friday above 1057. Obviously Oct closed down a bit. Miscommunication on our part.

The Nov-Jan stats are still pertinent, but of course the consecutive Sept-October stats are now irrelevant. I need the weekend to cogitate on the future direction of the end of year. We have speculated here that we would get a pullback before yearend. Not sure if the down October, really changes the odds much. I owe everyone an epifhany for the foul up on this post. I will share when it hits me.

Those familiar with my comments, know I was being facitious, when I posted above that I went short midmorning. I’m not that smart. Took several daily shorts during October, but unfortunately missed the last two days. Ive been hurt some over the last few months by the failure of the end of month-first of month patterns. For example, I went in today with the knowledge that 11 of the last 12 last Fridays of October had been up, with the one percent moves 8-0. The kind of odds I traditionally play. But it didnt work out here. Ran stops took a 1.25% loss today.

Again my apologies for the goof up on above post. Have a good weekend.

There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about the economy and the stimulus gigantus that has kept it afoat, but just like 2003, we were a full year in a bull run before any kind of pullback really began.

I scratched my head then, and I’m doing it now, but I’m still buying the dips and trading the short term declines with inverse ETF’s like the DXD and QID.

I’m sticking with that plan until there are clear signs the bigger bull move is finished. A simple 40 week moving average can help with that, just as it did signaling a bigger bear starting back in 2007.