Comments on: Tony Oz Calls The Stock Market Bottom http://www.tradersnarrative.com/tony-oz-calls-the-stock-market-bottom-1943.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Sat, 21 Nov 2009 22:44:12 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/tony-oz-calls-the-stock-market-bottom-1943.html#comment-55663 Mon, 12 Oct 2009 23:49:25 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/tony-oz-calls-the-stock-market-bottom-1943.html#comment-55663 just eked out a 23-8 :) just eked out a 23-8 :)

]]> by: wayne http://www.tradersnarrative.com/tony-oz-calls-the-stock-market-bottom-1943.html#comment-55647 Sun, 11 Oct 2009 18:06:55 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/tony-oz-calls-the-stock-market-bottom-1943.html#comment-55647 Babak, Monday is an interesting day. The last 30 Mondays of the October expiration week are 22-8. The last one percent down move was in 1979. Dave, looking for an up day, but a down day would be seen as a sign of weakness. Expirations are different animals. Good Luck to us. Babak,

Monday is an interesting day. The last 30 Mondays of the October expiration week are 22-8. The last one percent down move was in 1979. Dave, looking for an up day, but a down day would be seen as a sign of weakness. Expirations are different animals. Good Luck to us.

]]> by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/tony-oz-calls-the-stock-market-bottom-1943.html#comment-55640 Sun, 11 Oct 2009 00:06:29 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/tony-oz-calls-the-stock-market-bottom-1943.html#comment-55640 MB, Tony traded out of that position with a profit (it was a short term call). See the comments before yours for the details. MB, Tony traded out of that position with a profit (it was a short term call). See the comments before yours for the details.

]]> by: MB http://www.tradersnarrative.com/tony-oz-calls-the-stock-market-bottom-1943.html#comment-55638 Sat, 10 Oct 2009 19:51:53 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/tony-oz-calls-the-stock-market-bottom-1943.html#comment-55638 Well this guy was dead wrong if he bought around 880... considering we reached 666. Hope he had a stop-loss and stayed disciplined. Well this guy was dead wrong if he bought around 880… considering we reached 666. Hope he had a stop-loss and stayed disciplined.

]]> by: roberto http://www.tradersnarrative.com/tony-oz-calls-the-stock-market-bottom-1943.html#comment-35229 Fri, 24 Oct 2008 15:14:28 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/tony-oz-calls-the-stock-market-bottom-1943.html#comment-35229 So for the late response on this. Yes - this is from the horses mouth. As of today 10/24 you can see we are not there yet. So for the late response on this. Yes - this is from the horses mouth. As of today 10/24 you can see we are not there yet.

]]> by: Evan http://www.tradersnarrative.com/tony-oz-calls-the-stock-market-bottom-1943.html#comment-35175 Mon, 20 Oct 2008 22:27:33 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/tony-oz-calls-the-stock-market-bottom-1943.html#comment-35175 Hi Babak, I had quite a learning experience last Monday in the market -- I realized that I had paid a HUGE amount for ES volatility the prior Thursday when I bought calls. I never thought that such a large percentage was associated with volatility; I mistakenly thought that option cost was mostly time value and intrinsic value. Your reply over the weekend made me rethink my position and try to get a better handle on modeling accurately option pricing. I decided to sell into strength last Monday -- I had March 990 Calls and at 11 AM Man Time, they were about $80 x $84 on IB (the Dec ES future was about 960). I set a limit sell at $110 and hoped for a decent profit (I bought the prior Thursday for $102). Back at work, I checked the close and saw that the ES peaked at about 1005, a full 45 points higher than it had been earlier. Additionally, the ES had gone 15 points past my strike price -- I KNEW I had sold. When I got home, I found that IB showed a close of $95 and I still had the options. I saw that the VIX had dropped every bit as fast as the price had risen. Ultimately, I sold them after-hours through IB for $120 as the futures moved higher. A good profit, but at what risk! Anyway, I wanted to thank you again for your efforts with your blog; your insight is much appreciated. Hi Babak,

I had quite a learning experience last Monday in the market — I realized that I
had paid a HUGE amount for ES volatility the prior Thursday when I bought calls.
I never thought that such a large percentage was associated with volatility;
I mistakenly thought that option cost was mostly time value and intrinsic
value.

Your reply over the weekend made me rethink my position and try to get a
better handle on modeling accurately option pricing. I decided to sell into
strength last Monday — I had March 990 Calls and at 11 AM Man Time, they were
about $80 x $84 on IB (the Dec ES future was about 960). I set a limit sell
at $110 and hoped for a decent profit (I bought the prior Thursday for $102).

Back at work, I checked the close and saw that the ES peaked at about 1005,
a full 45 points higher than it had been earlier. Additionally, the ES had
gone 15 points past my strike price — I KNEW I had sold.

When I got home, I found that IB showed a close of $95 and I still had the
options. I saw that the VIX had dropped every bit as fast as the price had
risen.

Ultimately, I sold them after-hours through IB for $120 as the futures moved
higher. A good profit, but at what risk!

Anyway, I wanted to thank you again for your efforts with your blog; your
insight is much appreciated.

]]> by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/tony-oz-calls-the-stock-market-bottom-1943.html#comment-35121 Thu, 16 Oct 2008 19:35:46 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/tony-oz-calls-the-stock-market-bottom-1943.html#comment-35121 roberto, really? is this direct from the horse's mouth? got a link? quote? roberto, really? is this direct from the horse’s mouth? got a link? quote?

]]> by: roberto http://www.tradersnarrative.com/tony-oz-calls-the-stock-market-bottom-1943.html#comment-35120 Thu, 16 Oct 2008 19:32:28 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/tony-oz-calls-the-stock-market-bottom-1943.html#comment-35120 No capitulation yet according to "lowry". Yesterdays wopper did not get there either. No capitulation yet according to “lowry”. Yesterdays wopper did not get there either.

]]> by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/tony-oz-calls-the-stock-market-bottom-1943.html#comment-35114 Thu, 16 Oct 2008 03:34:27 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/tony-oz-calls-the-stock-market-bottom-1943.html#comment-35114 yeah, I thought so, just wasn't clear. good stuff Tony :) yeah, I thought so, just wasn’t clear. good stuff Tony :)

]]> by: Tony Oz http://www.tradersnarrative.com/tony-oz-calls-the-stock-market-bottom-1943.html#comment-35094 Tue, 14 Oct 2008 22:02:27 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/tony-oz-calls-the-stock-market-bottom-1943.html#comment-35094 Babak, those were the add-ons that were bought and sold on Friday. ES Trades are not position trades, lol. I sold the "investment" SPY at the open today as I said in the newsletter: It was the fastest bull market in history... Up 25% from the low of Friday, at one point , I had to pull the trigger. Bulls make money, Bears make money and Pigs get .... If the low on Friday at 840 held up 52 weeks from now, and the market was trading at 1065, then it would be called a "Bull Market" It took just TWO days to make that move.. All in cash now and waiting for the next opportunity ... Babak, those were the add-ons that were bought and sold on Friday. ES Trades are not position trades, lol.

I sold the “investment” SPY at the open today as I said in the newsletter: It was the fastest bull market in history…

Up 25% from the low of Friday, at one point , I had to pull the trigger.

Bulls make money, Bears make money and Pigs get ….

If the low on Friday at 840 held up 52 weeks from now, and the market was trading at 1065, then it would be called a “Bull Market” It took just TWO days to make that move..

All in cash now and waiting for the next opportunity …

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