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Tony Robbins Channels Paul Tudor Jones II & Issues Caution




Here's a rather rare message from personal development guru, Tony Robbins on the stock market:


Source: Tony Robbins blog

Most of the content about the economy and the stock market should be old hat to my readers. While Tony doesn't name the person he has been mentoring, from the description of this trader's success in the 1987 crash and his profitability during the past few years it can only be Paul Tudor Jones II.

This is an educated guess on my part. We know from the 1987 PBS produced documentary "TRADER: The Documentary" that he was heavily short the S&P 500 using Elliott Wave analysis. As well, we know from his more recent comments that he is bullish on gold and bearish on equities (generally speaking).

By the way, the documentary is extremely rare but I have a copy and to be honest, I was shocked to learn that Tudor Jones's home-run during the 1987 crash was underpinned by Elliott Wave analysis.

If we assume that Tony is speaking accurately from his recent conversations with Paul Tudor Jones II, then he is saying that while he was bullish on March 2009, now he is bearish and expecting a waterfall decline sometime into late 2010 or early 2011.

Make of that what you will.

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25 Responses to “Tony Robbins Channels Paul Tudor Jones II & Issues Caution”  

  1. 1 Jesse Thompson

    He's definitely NOT channeling PT Jones, Jones did not lose money for several years after 1987 as Robbins cites in this video...

  2. 2 Aly S.

    I don't know about that, Jesse.

    Jones made more than anyone in 1987 but thought a new depression was starting, and he was way off on that...so I believe he did lose money or at least struggle to make money in the years immediately following 1987.

  3. 3 Gossip_Grl

    Sounds more like the Prechter story and he did not make billions...

  4. 4 Samuel

    That does sound like Prechter and his socioeconomics theory

  5. 5 Oexrex

    Contrary to popular belief Prechter did not call the ' 87 Crash. How do I know? I was a broker then, and 6 of us subscribed to his newsletter and his bi-weekly telephone updates. He was actually bullish in the newsletter just prior to the Crash as well as his telephone update just in the prior week to Monday, October 19, 1987. A few days after the Crash his telephone update referenced a few sentences in the newsletter basically hedging his bullishness and claimed that he "called" it. Why the media promotes his claim to this day is unbelievable.

    As for Robbins, he may be just another contrary indicator. When discipline lines are crossed, well let's just say it's like Michael Jordan leaving hoops to play baseball.

    I am Bearish but I am a short term trader and my indicators detect bears gathering but the bear charge/attack has not commenced.

    As for Robbins, he could be a contrary indicator. When people cross out of their discipline, well it's like Michael Jordan leaving hoops to try baseball.

    I am however personally Bearish although, being a short term trader, I have not placed any bets. My indicators are showing bears congregating but the attack has not begun

  6. 6 Babak

    Oexrex, I know it is a longshot but do you happen to have the archive of the newsletter from then (1987)? it would be awesome to actually go over what people were actually saying back then.

  7. 7 Doctor Stock

    Really, Tony? C'mon... geez... with that broad of a forecast, you can't be wrong. I can't say he's my financial guide!

  8. 8 Avi

    Nice post Babak

  9. 9 Pete

    Trader - 1987 PTJ

  10. 10 Babak

    there it is, watch it before it is taken down

    Thanks Peter

  11. 11 Oexrex

    Babak

    No we did not keep any copies of the newsletter nor a copy of the recording; we simply let our subscription expire along with a few others

  12. 12 Oexrex

    Babak

    Just remembered that we were subscribing to Peter Eliades, Stan Weinstein, Robert Nurock , and Marty Zweig at the time.

    As I recall Eliades had aligned himself with Prechter at the time and basically made excuses on how Elliot Wave did not forecast the "Crash" for a long time afterwards

  13. 13 Peter Eliades

    As I recall Eliades had aligned himself with Prechter at the time and basically made excuses on how Elliot Wave did not forecast the “Crash” for a long time afterwards

    May I ask what the quote above is supposed to mean? Prechter is a good friend so we are "aligned" in that way but I have never purposely aligned my opinion with his. I do my own work, thank you, and it does not include Elliott Wave analysis. The WSJ wrote an article which credited me and one other analyst as being the only ones who positioned their clients properly in anticipation of the crash.

    As to the remainder of the suppositions here, I will state that most of the speculation is wrong. I was in Paul Tudoe Jones office all day the day of the crash and anything that happened there was confidential, but the majority of stories and suppositions here are incorrect.

  14. 14 Phil Seaton

    Interesting video from Tony. I would not say that I'm his biggest fan and expect some of his accounts of working with traders are hyperbole. That said, I agree with quite a lot of what he says here and it ties in with my own research. My indicators show that the stock markets are in a downtrend at present and I expect them to move significantly lower before the end of this year.

    My research shows that spending peaks on average around 46 years or age, which is a bit quicker than the 48 to 50 that Tony mentions. Time will tell, but I'd certainly rather be short at present.

  15. 15 shawn

    On July 2, 2010 – Ron Insana interviewed Precther. Insana said that Precther's Fri call before lthe 1987 crash was dead-on. Later, Insana criticized Precther's other calls, but he definitely gave him the 1987 crash call.

    I have been following Robbins for about 20 years, and it took me a long time to figure out who was the unnamed trader...

    Robbins does know Prechter well, but he freely refers to Precther by name, and I cannot remember exactly the evidence that caused me to come to the belief, but I strongly believe the Paul Tudor Jones is the person that Robbins cannot name..

  16. 16 Daniel

    LOL!
    We just witnessed a re-enactment of one of the truly great moments in the history of comedy. It happened on 8-18-2010, at exactly 9:47am, above.

    Not since a Woody Allen character temporarily left a movie line, where while waiting for a Marshall McLuhan film he was having an argument with a fellow fan, to walk "off stage" (cinematically that is) and come back towing the Master himself, by the sleeve, to say "NO, young man that is NOT what I meant at all", has so immediate and awesome a response and rebuke been delivered. The Internet is truly coolsville, the things that can happen. Nicely done, Mr. Eliades!

    Shame on you most of all Babak, for not properly pouncing on this, and calling attn to it on behalf of your readers. { ;-) }

  17. 17 Babak

    Daniel, I assumed everyone would catch it as you did. There have been a few times like this where we are all surprised, none more than me, as to who is reading this blog :)

  18. 18 Phil Seaton

    Possibly more important that trying to discover who the mystery trader is (if it is even true) is to determine what relevance this story actually has. The amount of profit made in a single day is largely tied to that amount of one's position size and leverage. It could be that this trader was over-leveraged and struck it lucky. Certainly Nassim Taleb would be largely assigning the results of a single trading day to luck.

    A far more relevant figure would be the percentage gain on the day based on position size, rather than the amount of the gain, and more importantly the percentage returns over a long period of time.

  19. 19 Tyler

    I don't know Daniel...neither Monsieur Eliades or Oexrex have proven anything. It's all he said, she said. Would love to see some source documentation. (And no, a WSJ article, that may or may not be taking things out of context, is not sufficient)

    sorry for the skepticism. I understand that Mr. Eliades is upset at being misquoted, misinterpreted, misunderstood, etc. To be fair though, Oexrex admitted he was going off memory. Also, it is not very uncommon that a supposed 'guru' is claiming to have been correct when he is really just citing a few hedged sentences. But you would really have to see all of the pieces leading up to it to really know for sure. That is why source documents would be nice, but honestly, who cares at this point? It is always up to the trader or the PM to manage his own risk even if he does hang his hat on the analysis or the 'call' of a newsletter writer or outside analyst, etc.

  20. 20 Jackstone

    It is precisely the fact that the single day profit is referenced by Tony which makes determining the "mystery trader" important. Were it someone who levered up and "struck it lucky" that would be one thing. Were it PTJ II who has one of the best long term track records of any trader/market participant around, that is another thing entirely. PTJ's track record fits with Tony's description. This includes 2008 where although the BVI Fund posted negative returns, Tudor's own book was positive for the year.

  21. 21 Wags

    I would AGREE with what Mr. Elliades said above in regards to Paul Tudor Jones.

    I worked for Tudor Investment as a full-time employee back in 1986 as his Comex broker. From what I understand, Tudor had $125 million in AUM heading into 1987. Although he was set-up heavily short S&P's and index options heading into the Fall of 1987 ( which was well documented by a documentary ), the majority of his gains in October of 1987 came largely from LONG limit positions in T-Bond futures to take advantage of the "flight to quality".

    I find much of Robbins' video to be full of hyperbole and self-promotion.
    Robbins points to high unemployment, weak consumer spending, weak demand for credit, blah, blah, blah which are all very OBVIOUS. In doing so, he winds up violating one of Paul Tudor Jones' biggest trading mottos . . . "What is obvious, is obviously wrong."

    PTJ may have been bearish after the Crash of '87 for awhile.
    But trust me when I tell you that he did not overstay his welcome in the Bear camp and quickly turned into a raging BULL in 1988.

  22. 22 Wags

    PS. While Elliott Wave was part of PTJ's trading methodology, it certainly was not the ONLY piece of technical work that Paul relied on in order to shape his view on the markets. He also used sentiment numbers, committment of traders reports, fib retracements, and he quite frequently used ANALOGS and intermarket relationships such as Dollar vs Crude Oil, etc.

    Peter Borish is shown in Paul's office in the 1987 Documentary at the office on 160 Broadway before Tudor Investment moved across the street into the Merrill Lynch Building (that's where the gym was that you see Paul and NYFE floor broker Mike "Libby" Mammaronek working out at ). In any event, Peter Borish was a quant that came over from the NY Fed well after Tudor Investment Company had been thriving and attracting investors. I believe his primary focus in 1986 and 1987 centered around finding strong correlations between markets, doing statistical analysis, and cycle work. I would suggest that the latter concepts carried much more weight in Paul's mind going into the Fall of 1987 than Elliott Wave Theory.

  23. 23 shawn

    Guys, Guys...

    Just say'in...

    The *astro-turfing* on this subject makes it obvioius.... look up *astro-turfing* on wikipedia, and please tell me whatever blog post here gets comments at more than 22 comments with many elaborate comments coming many days after the post....

    I work in the mobile broadband space (the 4G cellular stuff).. it reminds me of EVO vs iPone 4 vs droid launch ars from last/this month??? of course the cell/smartphones companies with $B budgets play this game at the most advanced levels on CNET, et al. but... the shills are screaming in my ear here... so PTJ or TR doesn't want it pubic, whatever,..

    it's just a blog guys...

  24. 24 kingkang

    Hey guys,

    I have old tapes from Tony Robbins Power Book series and in this video, he talks about population growth, that is only 1 person and that is the same person that he interviewed for the PowerTalk tapes series and that man is....(drum roll).......Harry Dent Jr!

  25. 25 jess livermore

    OMG. This is equivalent to President Obama doing a national address to advise Kanye West on where his beats should be going. Pure gold train wreck. I love it.

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