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Trying To Make Sense Of Cramer’s Advice at Trader’s Narrative

Trying To Make Sense Of Cramer’s Advice

Here’s a recent screenshot of

cramer contradicts his own advice

In the first article, he is pessimistic about the outcome of a concerted financial rescue plan and offers the kind of target that I’m used to seeing from Bob Prechter:

Why I’m Negative Now (2:02 PM Sunday)

This strategy, which I presume will not be adopted, but which makes the most sense, would allow for shotgun weddings for all the weak banks to eliminate the bleeding. Without this kind of action I am reverting to a downside target of 6,700 for Monday and then 4,700 for Tuesday in keeping with the hopeful ‘87 playbook.

A few hours later, as Asian markets and overnight futures traded higher showing confidence back in the markets, he writes:

Don’t Fade the Opening (9:13 PM Sunday)

I say, play it out, don’t sell. Let’s see if we can’t get something going for a couple of days, unless you have some stock you bought into the down-600 moments from Friday. Even if you are down a lot, you are being too greedy…

Within a time span of a few hours, he has contradicted himself. But that’s not all. Here he is, just a few days ago telling people to sell and take their money out of the market:

Whatever money you may need for the next five years, please take it out of the stock market right now, this week…I don’t want people to get hurt in the market.

Got that Cramerica? Clear as mud, right? Booya!

It looks like Cramer is just throwing everything at the wall and hoping something will stick. Whatever scenario plays out, he will have ample “opinions” to choose from and point to, and many others to conveniently sweep under the rug.

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6 Responses to “Trying To Make Sense Of Cramer’s Advice”  

  1. 1 Greg Feirman

    To be fair, it can make sense for him to have said sell last Monday and then buy later in the week after stocks were down 12%, 14%, 18%, etc…. At that point, it starts getting priced in.

    The flip flop yesterday, however, strikes me as a little bizarre. Dow 6700 on Monday, 4700 on Tuesday and then “don’t sell” 7 hours later???? That’s a flip flopping.

    Nice work here by the way. I think your technicals and sentiment analysis are really good. I’m a regular reader.

  2. 2 marco

    When Cramer ran his hedge fund, his wife was the adult supervision for his baser trading instincts. She kept him in business more than once.

    Based on what we’ve seen from him for the past few years, I think his wife now stays out of it; he’s all over the place.

  3. 3 BachFan

    Re Cramer’s wife, Karen, I thought I read somewhere that they had separated? Maybe that explains why Cramer’s trading calls have been all over the place.

  4. 4 eber terandst

    I agree, Cramer is throwing everything to the wall to see what sticks.
    But, I would NOT go into any details about WHAT he is throwing. Let’s not be scatological.

  5. 5 Brad Reid

    Cramer’s prior successes as a hedge fund operator were likely owing to the almost hyperbolic bull market he was caught up in; that, and enough “wires” out and around the brokerage world to sort of get the heads up on some trades and positions he could benefit from. Cronyism, likely.

    But, he has no system, either fundamental or technical. Cramer devised an odd admixture of pedestrian trading rules, but similar to the way a leaky dam is plugged, when a leak occurs he simply adds more rules. He seems to be out of “thumbs” to plug the dam leaks.

    He is an extemporaneous “back tester” meaning that instead of using a computer to “model” a solution from old data, he adds new rules almost daily adjusting on the fly for his program viewers.

    I wonder how much of his investment net worth has evaporated in the past several years? Perhaps, a nice salary covers some of this. It’s hard to fathom the sort of damage he has done to anyone who has followed his advice, though there seems to be an endless supply of sheep out there still calling into his program.

    Maybe they like his occasional honesty regarding his many failures? But, his followers seem to treat these mistakes as exceptions lacking a way to actually quantify his overall results.

    I know one thing: He is surely the poster boy for the “Efficient Market” theorists.


  6. 6 MS

    I have often said of Mr. Cramer:

    if he were any good at running a hedge fund, he’d still be doing it.

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