Comments on: US Dollar Cracks Long Term Support, But …

by: Babak

Mon, 02 Jun 2008 05:00:16 +0000

Salamah, I’d check with the Fed they have all sorts of historical rates, fed funds, libor, euribor, etc.

by: Salamah

Mon, 02 Jun 2008 03:33:00 +0000

I’m in dire need to know the interest rates on the US Dollar between July 1992, and June 1995.
Can you please tell me where I can find such info?

Thank you very much.

by: US Dollar: Giselle Bundchen Jay-Z

Sat, 17 Nov 2007 02:53:52 +0000

[…] I’ve been “contrarian” bullish on US dollars ever since it cracked its long term support. It seemed to me that everyone and their uncle was short the dollar and although for good reason, it seemed like too easy a trade. […]

by: Why Weak Dollar Helps The Stock Market

Tue, 25 Sep 2007 23:54:17 +0000

[…] I’m not an automatic dollar bear (as I’ve mentioned before, the dollar may surprise everyone as it has before) but even if the dollar does continue to decline, I don’t think that will necessarily mean that investing in US equities is a losing proposition. […]

by: Anton

Tue, 25 Sep 2007 07:24:23 +0000

Also remember the oil price now vs then.

by: Capt. Jean-Luc Pikachu

Mon, 24 Sep 2007 15:49:13 +0000

If the value of the dollar is based on confidence in America, then only a Democratic president can restore that confidence.

For more on the premise (and not my partisan conclusion)

by: Bourne

Wed, 19 Sep 2007 22:46:42 +0000

Hi, Johan.
I found this fed-dollar relationship very interesting. I checked with a colleague, but she was skeptic: “until now and since 1971 dollar had preeminence and whenever a crisis began, actives went into dollar as a safe haven currency even if it was low yielding, but now the picture is different…”.
This was a bit dissapointing as your idea had a counter-intuitive and contrarian potential, but I had to agree that the last TICS data seems to point in that direction. The problem with staticstics usually is sample size. In analyzing markets, often we are using a mix of statistics and exceptional-significative qualitative case studies.

Who knows. If we are in for a bullish rally in markets and recession fears fail to confirm, maybe the picture is not so different. Good luck anyway.

by: Johan

Wed, 19 Sep 2007 22:21:23 +0000

One really important concept when using statistics to trade is that you should also have stop losses for your statistics. That is to have certain levels for when you should toss those predictions away.

by: Johan

Wed, 19 Sep 2007 22:18:06 +0000

Hi Babak!

Of course it is backtested. In this case it is from Jason Goepert at SentimenTrader.com and goes back 1971 and 8 instances that the FED lowered the rate. 7 of the 8 time it has gone up. The time it went down was a relatively low 8%.

But still this is very weak data.

For instance, more than a year ago I saved this article about what happens when FED stops increasing the rate. And they did stop increase the rate, but what then happened wasn’t really what all these differens statistics said.

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2006/08/market_behavior.html

So the predictions might be wrong again.

One should be really careful with statistics. 99% of people who deal with stats doesn’t really know what they are doing. But then I’m not a statistician so might stats may be wrong

by: Babak

Wed, 19 Sep 2007 21:55:47 +0000

Johan, did you do some sort of backtesting for this?