Comments on: US Dollar Reaches Long Term Technical Support Level

by: US Dollar: Giselle Bundchen Jay-Z

Tue, 27 Nov 2007 20:38:42 +0000

[…] The dollar didn’t even so much as pause on its way through long term support. And I mean really long term support. That technical support line goes back to 1990. contrarian, dollar, dollar sentiment, euro, giselle bundchen, Jay Z, US dollar […]

by: US Dollar Cracks Long Term Support, But …

Thu, 13 Sep 2007 21:27:31 +0000

[…] Last time I wrote about the beleaguered US dollar, it was just kissing its long term support at 80. […]

by: Gold & Gold Stocks Gets Clobbered

Fri, 17 Aug 2007 03:52:50 +0000

[…] I’m sure all gold bugs are asking themselves: if gold can’t rally in the face of an equity market meltdown, the US dollar in the dumps, a credit crunch which has people dumping aything risky, and which has brought out a slew of negative headlines… when will it rally? When it is all sunshine and lollipops? […]

by: Secular Gold Bull Market Finished?

Mon, 23 Jul 2007 15:53:51 +0000

[…] As I ponder the dollar reaching its long term support levels, I can’t help but wonder how things look for gold stocks long term. My favourite indicator for the precious metals sector is the k-ratio. […]

by: Babak

Sat, 21 Jul 2007 02:48:53 +0000

Jimmy, thanks for the analysis. You’re right about the COTs. I prefer to use HUI instead of XAU because it is the only real pure gold index. I agree that gold has to catch up with the equities, otherwise the move is over.

by: Jimmy

Fri, 20 Jul 2007 05:43:04 +0000

i have no position in gold nor gold stocks, so i’m unbias looking at these two. this is what i see…

1) for gold futures contracts, the big boy commercials has been 9 straight weeks below their long term (since jan.2000) averaged short/long ratio positions. this has been consistently bullish for the intermediate term trend.

2) for gold/silver stocks, the xau gold index has been consolidating around the long term support level of xau/gold ratio for most of this year. this past week it has rallied higher and broke above the downtrend resistance line going back from the early 2006 top for the xau/gold ratio.

currently gold has been modestly moving higher but during intermediate term bull markets the gold indexes usually rockets higher first. this is evidenced by the xau/hui/gox making new 52 weeks highs. though they still need to break above the may 2006 high/top.

for gold, it usually lacks at the beginning…and it then does it best before topping right after the gold stock indexes already had topped several weeks earlier.

Babak, hope this info. helps. this my trader mentality perspective.

i am thinking about buying some silver stocks but been busy looking at tech stocks.

by: Babak

Fri, 20 Jul 2007 02:39:34 +0000

Jimmy, I have a hunch that the secular bull market for gold is over.

Thanks Tom, interesting stuff.

by: Tom the Burninator

Thu, 19 Jul 2007 14:54:28 +0000

According to my research, the Dollar and Gold are directly correlated till about 89 on the USD index, after that they’re inversely linked.

I posted a curve of the relationship here: http://www.neuralmarkettrends.com/2007/07/13/301/

by: Jimmy

Thu, 19 Jul 2007 05:58:37 +0000

actually in rare cases the dollar and gold will rally together. i believe that Carl Swenlin at DecisionPoint.com has a Dollar Gold valued chart (where $USDollar x $USGold are multiplied to generate the chart) to validate the long term secular bull market for gold.

both the dollar and gold rallied in 2005 to 2006. from there they de-coupled. dollar tanked and gold consolidated. his dollar gold chart was in a consolidation after its 2005-2006 rally. presently if the dollar rallies then that should validate gold current potential move to break out of it consolidation. thus gold and gold stocks are starting tp move higher along with the equity stock market.