Comments on: Was That Capitulation? http://www.tradersnarrative.com/was-that-capitulation-1274.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Sun, 22 Nov 2009 01:34:59 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: Back To Blogging! http://www.tradersnarrative.com/was-that-capitulation-1274.html#comment-21119 Fri, 09 Nov 2007 23:14:13 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/was-that-capitulation-1274.html#comment-21119 [...] Calling the intermediate market top as well as repeated calls for a bottom in mid August and early September, are rare feats. I doubt I can keep this up. But it will be fun to try. [...] […] Calling the intermediate market top as well as repeated calls for a bottom in mid August and early September, are rare feats. I doubt I can keep this up. But it will be fun to try. […]

]]> by: Sell Something: Dow High Relative To Moving Average http://www.tradersnarrative.com/was-that-capitulation-1274.html#comment-17407 Thu, 20 Sep 2007 15:35:04 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/was-that-capitulation-1274.html#comment-17407 [...] When I asked “Was That Capitulation?” (hint, hint). [...] […] When I asked “Was That Capitulation?” (hint, hint). […]

]]> by: FOMC Rate Cut September 18th 2007 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/was-that-capitulation-1274.html#comment-17325 Tue, 18 Sep 2007 15:29:46 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/was-that-capitulation-1274.html#comment-17325 [...] Not because I’m talking my book, but rather because that’s what the bond market is saying. Right now the 90 T-Bill rate is around 4.05%. While the Fed Funds rate has been 5.25% since June 29, 2006, since this spring, the bond market has been signaling repeatedly that it should be lowered. [...] […] Not because I’m talking my book, but rather because that’s what the bond market is saying. Right now the 90 T-Bill rate is around 4.05%. While the Fed Funds rate has been 5.25% since June 29, 2006, since this spring, the bond market has been signaling repeatedly that it should be lowered. […]

]]> by: Major Market Players Taking Opposite Sides http://www.tradersnarrative.com/was-that-capitulation-1274.html#comment-17023 Wed, 12 Sep 2007 13:44:07 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/was-that-capitulation-1274.html#comment-17023 [...] Fund flows According to fund flows data estimates, as the retail investor is fleeing the equity markets and seeking the sanctuary of bond markets and money market funds, the institutional investor is buying with the same intensity. Watch video about half way on the link. [...] […] Fund flows According to fund flows data estimates, as the retail investor is fleeing the equity markets and seeking the sanctuary of bond markets and money market funds, the institutional investor is buying with the same intensity. Watch video about half way on the link. […]

]]> by: Sentiment Overview For Week Of August 31st 2007 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/was-that-capitulation-1274.html#comment-15906 Wed, 05 Sep 2007 02:57:16 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/was-that-capitulation-1274.html#comment-15906 [...] AAII Still too many bulls in this sentiment reading (40%) but the bears are still outnumbering them at 46%. There’s no denying that during this correction the Mom’n'Pop retail investors have come across as outright cold-blooded creatures. My own personal theory is that they simply don’t care about the stock market because they have very little invested and therefore, little at stake. [...] […] AAII Still too many bulls in this sentiment reading (40%) but the bears are still outnumbering them at 46%. There’s no denying that during this correction the Mom’n’Pop retail investors have come across as outright cold-blooded creatures. My own personal theory is that they simply don’t care about the stock market because they have very little invested and therefore, little at stake. […]

]]> by: Stock Market Volume: Summer Doldrums Or Summer Mayhem? http://www.tradersnarrative.com/was-that-capitulation-1274.html#comment-15313 Mon, 27 Aug 2007 22:01:18 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/was-that-capitulation-1274.html#comment-15313 [...] This in spite of record shattering daily volumes during the deepest and darkest days of the sell-off. And in spite of the calendar being in the thick of the “summer doldrums”. And in spite of the total volume averages reaching unheard of extremes. [...] […] This in spite of record shattering daily volumes during the deepest and darkest days of the sell-off. And in spite of the calendar being in the thick of the “summer doldrums”. And in spite of the total volume averages reaching unheard of extremes. […]

]]> by: President Fox http://www.tradersnarrative.com/was-that-capitulation-1274.html#comment-14498 Wed, 22 Aug 2007 16:38:10 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/was-that-capitulation-1274.html#comment-14498 Nice post Babak. Regarding Markus' comments, he might have been referring to the data in the following link (gives breakdown of retail v program trading last Thursday). http://bzbtrader.blogspot.com/2007/08/facts-of-life.html Nice post Babak.
Regarding Markus’ comments, he might have been referring to the data in the following link (gives breakdown of retail v program trading last Thursday).

http://bzbtrader.blogspot.com/2007/08/facts-of-life.html

]]> by: Bond Market Screaming For Rate Cut - Fed Listening? http://www.tradersnarrative.com/was-that-capitulation-1274.html#comment-14424 Wed, 22 Aug 2007 03:05:09 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/was-that-capitulation-1274.html#comment-14424 [...] I mentioned last week that there was a mad dash towards “risk free” assets, namely short term T-Bills which drove their price sky high and caused their rate to crash through the floor. [...] […] I mentioned last week that there was a mad dash towards “risk free” assets, namely short term T-Bills which drove their price sky high and caused their rate to crash through the floor. […]

]]> by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/was-that-capitulation-1274.html#comment-14384 Tue, 21 Aug 2007 12:19:23 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/was-that-capitulation-1274.html#comment-14384 Johan, we never really get all the ducks lining up the way we want them to. re ETFs, looking at the sheer volume, it is easy to see that big players are involved. Markus, where did you get the 3-6%? When retail investors are fleeing the market in record numbers, that is a huge tell. Johan, we never really get all the ducks lining up the way we want them to. re ETFs, looking at the sheer volume, it is easy to see that big players are involved.

Markus, where did you get the 3-6%? When retail investors are fleeing the market in record numbers, that is a huge tell.

]]> by: Markus http://www.tradersnarrative.com/was-that-capitulation-1274.html#comment-14371 Tue, 21 Aug 2007 07:04:07 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/was-that-capitulation-1274.html#comment-14371 Stupid money, hm. The "retail investor" participates only for 3-6 % in nowadays stock markets. I think his/her behavior has become a less useful gauge over the time. I appreciate sentiment quite a lot, but you have to read it always in context. Now, there is so much reading and hearing about bottoming in the equity markets.. It makes me cautious. And we have indeed a long time of liquidity excess which will reverse. Stupid money, hm. The “retail investor” participates only for 3-6 % in nowadays stock markets. I think his/her behavior has become a less useful gauge over the time. I appreciate sentiment quite a lot, but you have to read it always in context. Now, there is so much reading and hearing about bottoming in the equity markets.. It makes me cautious. And we have indeed a long time of liquidity excess which will reverse.

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