Comments on: What Is Really Going On With The Price Of Crude Oil? http://www.tradersnarrative.com/what-is-really-going-on-with-the-price-of-crude-oil-1719.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:59:39 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: Pablo Pena http://www.tradersnarrative.com/what-is-really-going-on-with-the-price-of-crude-oil-1719.html#comment-34892 Sat, 27 Sep 2008 00:32:00 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/what-is-really-going-on-with-the-price-of-crude-oil-1719.html#comment-34892 > - George Soros I agree with Mr. Soros entirely. But this was written in May of this year and the current economic collapse or at least 'drawdown' will mean seriously tightening supplies. At least in the mid term oil prices are falling. > - George Soros

I agree with Mr. Soros entirely. But this was written in May of this year and the current economic collapse or at least ‘drawdown’ will mean seriously tightening supplies. At least in the mid term oil prices are falling.

]]> by: Weldon Thurston III http://www.tradersnarrative.com/what-is-really-going-on-with-the-price-of-crude-oil-1719.html#comment-33757 Fri, 20 Jun 2008 23:02:37 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/what-is-really-going-on-with-the-price-of-crude-oil-1719.html#comment-33757 Soros, unfortunately, has been saying that oil prices were at speculative bubble levels at $50 per barrel. Soros, I suspect, is really out of touch with the current reality and is basing his opinion on a past reality that no longer exisits .. at least for now. Prices began to have an impact on demand for refined products in the mature western economies in 2005 but demand in the developing economies continued to grow unchecked -- in part because government subsidies and price controls insulated consumers. Doesn't that sound familiar? Washington D.C. did the same thing in the mid-1970's. For the first few years of the hyper-rally, oil exploration companies viewed prices to be at unsustainable levels. After major crude oil reserves are discovered, development projects now take 8 to 10 years to complete. I look for a substantial increase in global crude oil production beginning in 2012 or 2013. By that time, demand for gasoline in the western economies of Europe and North America will have declined for 4 to 5 years. Prices will crash -- not because trading activities created a bubble -- but because of the inevitable boom and bust cycle. Soros, unfortunately, has been saying that oil prices were at speculative bubble levels at $50 per barrel. Soros, I suspect, is really out of touch with the current reality and is basing his opinion on a past reality that no longer exisits .. at least for now.

Prices began to have an impact on demand for refined products in the mature western economies in 2005 but demand in the developing economies continued to grow unchecked — in part because government subsidies and price controls insulated consumers. Doesn’t that sound familiar? Washington D.C. did the same thing in the mid-1970’s.

For the first few years of the hyper-rally, oil exploration companies viewed prices to be at unsustainable levels. After major crude oil reserves are discovered, development projects now take 8 to 10 years to complete. I look for a substantial increase in global crude oil production beginning in 2012 or 2013. By that time, demand for gasoline in the western economies of Europe and North America will have declined for 4 to 5 years. Prices will crash — not because trading activities created a bubble — but because of the inevitable boom and bust cycle.

]]> by: Mark http://www.tradersnarrative.com/what-is-really-going-on-with-the-price-of-crude-oil-1719.html#comment-33676 Tue, 17 Jun 2008 16:16:46 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/what-is-really-going-on-with-the-price-of-crude-oil-1719.html#comment-33676 This string caught my attention, but still a little surprised there isn't as many comments as I expected. I'll keep checking back since this is a hot topic for me personally. This string caught my attention, but still a little surprised there isn’t as many comments as I expected. I’ll keep checking back since this is a hot topic for me personally.

]]> by: Price Of Oil: Manipulation? Bubble? Supply/Demand? http://www.tradersnarrative.com/what-is-really-going-on-with-the-price-of-crude-oil-1719.html#comment-33487 Sat, 07 Jun 2008 01:22:12 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/what-is-really-going-on-with-the-price-of-crude-oil-1719.html#comment-33487 [...] Perfect Storm My gut feeling is that we are seeing a confluence of forces, among them, long only commodity funds, a weak dollar, negative real interest rates (which always increase commodity prices) and demand from an increasingly voracious industrial complex in China and India. [...] […] Perfect Storm My gut feeling is that we are seeing a confluence of forces, among them, long only commodity funds, a weak dollar, negative real interest rates (which always increase commodity prices) and demand from an increasingly voracious industrial complex in China and India. […]

]]> by: The 14th Money Hacks Carnival - Weird Golf Facts Edition | Prime Time Money http://www.tradersnarrative.com/what-is-really-going-on-with-the-price-of-crude-oil-1719.html#comment-33332 Wed, 28 May 2008 11:49:55 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/what-is-really-going-on-with-the-price-of-crude-oil-1719.html#comment-33332 [...] Babak presents What Is Really Going On With The Price Of Crude Oil? posted at Trader’s Narrative, saying, “There may be more to the spike in the price of oil than just good old supply and demand.” [...] […] Babak presents What Is Really Going On With The Price Of Crude Oil? posted at Trader’s Narrative, saying, “There may be more to the spike in the price of oil than just good old supply and demand.” […]

]]> by: Oil & Gas Exploration SPDR (XOP): Shooting Star http://www.tradersnarrative.com/what-is-really-going-on-with-the-price-of-crude-oil-1719.html#comment-33328 Tue, 27 May 2008 23:29:05 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/what-is-really-going-on-with-the-price-of-crude-oil-1719.html#comment-33328 [...] Continuing to look at the energy sector, here is another chart that shows some interesting technical characteristics: [...] […] Continuing to look at the energy sector, here is another chart that shows some interesting technical characteristics: […]

]]> by: hammster http://www.tradersnarrative.com/what-is-really-going-on-with-the-price-of-crude-oil-1719.html#comment-33309 Mon, 26 May 2008 19:17:15 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/what-is-really-going-on-with-the-price-of-crude-oil-1719.html#comment-33309 Sorry, Chavez, my investments in US oil drillers only helps to lower oil prices, not raise them. They don't teach you investments over there in Venezuela, no? That's like saying investing in companies that produce hybrid vehicles is like putting more gas guzzling cars on the road. I'm not your brother. I think he's in Cuba in a hospital somewhere. Sorry, Chavez, my investments in US oil drillers only helps to lower oil prices, not raise them. They don’t teach you investments over there in Venezuela, no?

That’s like saying investing in companies that produce hybrid vehicles is like putting more gas guzzling cars on the road.

I’m not your brother. I think he’s in Cuba in a hospital somewhere.

]]> by: chavez http://www.tradersnarrative.com/what-is-really-going-on-with-the-price-of-crude-oil-1719.html#comment-33308 Mon, 26 May 2008 18:17:43 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/what-is-really-going-on-with-the-price-of-crude-oil-1719.html#comment-33308 hammster, thank you brother. We need more people like you to help us (the oil producing countries). Please tell all your friends to buy USO if they are not familiar with oil futures. Crude going to $1000 soon, and so on forever. May be there will be a day when crude will be more expensive then diamonds (let alone gold). hammster, thank you brother. We need more people like you to help us (the oil producing countries). Please tell all your friends to buy USO if they are not familiar with oil futures.
Crude going to $1000 soon, and so on forever. May be there will be a day when crude will be more expensive then diamonds (let alone gold).

]]> by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/what-is-really-going-on-with-the-price-of-crude-oil-1719.html#comment-33305 Mon, 26 May 2008 17:14:54 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/what-is-really-going-on-with-the-price-of-crude-oil-1719.html#comment-33305 hammster, you lost all respect for Soros because of bluefly? the whole capitalization of BFLY isn't even a rounding error on his bank account! LoL hammster, you lost all respect for Soros because of bluefly? the whole capitalization of BFLY isn’t even a rounding error on his bank account! LoL

]]> by: Batman http://www.tradersnarrative.com/what-is-really-going-on-with-the-price-of-crude-oil-1719.html#comment-33303 Mon, 26 May 2008 15:10:44 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/what-is-really-going-on-with-the-price-of-crude-oil-1719.html#comment-33303 This is a Goldman Sachs conspiracy trade. This is their self fulfilling prophecy being completed by their energy desks. With the co-operation of friends in North American financial power bases. Hank "Goldman" Paulson and Mark "Goldman" Carney running the Bank of Canada, both will continue to lower interest rates (Paulson via Lapdog Bernake) and force inflation/dollar hedgers to own oil until the dollar shows signs of life and a turnaround. The oil bubble will only break when these slaves of Goldman and the Bush Admin is done supporting the oil lobbyists that put the fool in the White House. The next admin will be forced to raise interest rates to save the economy and as the dollar strengthens the price of oil will come off. Unfortunately, the amount of pain America will face next year will be far greater than what it could have been had Bernake just leave rates alone. He should have made Wall Street take its medicine and allowed for more Bear Stearns collapses. Instead, as history will show, their actions will have made things far worse, and prolong the recession by several years more than necessary as the price of oil kills the consumer via rising gas and food bills, and reduces the profit margins of some of Americas largest employers, forcing greater layoffs. Enjoy the run while it lasts, the next Bear will make the TECH collapse look like a weekend at the beach. This is a Goldman Sachs conspiracy trade. This is their self fulfilling prophecy being completed by their energy desks. With the co-operation of friends in North American financial power bases. Hank “Goldman” Paulson and Mark “Goldman” Carney running the Bank of Canada, both will continue to lower interest rates (Paulson via Lapdog Bernake) and force inflation/dollar hedgers to own oil until the dollar shows signs of life and a turnaround.

The oil bubble will only break when these slaves of Goldman and the Bush Admin is done supporting the oil lobbyists that put the fool in the White House. The next admin will be forced to raise interest rates to save the economy and as the dollar strengthens the price of oil will come off. Unfortunately, the amount of pain America will face next year will be far greater than what it could have been had Bernake just leave rates alone. He should have made Wall Street take its medicine and allowed for more Bear Stearns collapses. Instead, as history will show, their actions will have made things far worse, and prolong the recession by several years more than necessary as the price of oil kills the consumer via rising gas and food bills, and reduces the profit margins of some of Americas largest employers, forcing greater layoffs.

Enjoy the run while it lasts, the next Bear will make the TECH collapse look like a weekend at the beach.

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