From City Slickers
This is a guest post by Wayne Whaley (CTA):
Before I share some statistics with you on the impact that positive September’s have on the last quarter, I’m reminded of a scene in one of my favorite comedies, “City Slickers”. Billy Crystal’s character Mitch fancies himself a cowboy and in an attempt to bond with Jack Parlance’ character Curly he pulls up next to him on the cattle run and whimsically wishes Curly a good day and ask him if he’s killed anybody today. Curly stares at Mitch, unamused and responds, “Nope but the day ain’t over yet”. Mitch fades back into the pack of his wannabe cowboy buddies, fearing that he might not live through the day.
So with the fact that September is up 4.4% and still has 8 trading days remaining, I hesitantly share the following statistics with you, hoping that I haven’t jinxed the rest of the month. I preface the table with the comment that September is historically the weakest calendar month of the year and the ability for the market to buck the trend is a sign of strength for the rest of the year. The table shows all Up Septembers since 1950 followed by the percent change in both October and the total 4th quarter.
Positive Septembers vs. October & 4th Quarter (for the S&P500):
There were only two significant fourth quarter losses following a positive September: in 1973 & 2007. Using the logic that “if the market can buck the seasonal trend, go with the trend”, since most November-Decembers are up, the losses in 2007 and 1973 were a very timely harbinger of worse things to come.
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