Putting it simple the autor just say to us “Guy’s we have seen funancial bubbles - thats just another one” like oil market is the same thing as housing market

I personally think is an excellent opportunity to pick up some bargain oil and mining shares and tuck them away for a few years.

We need hard numbers about “demand destruction”. I have seen nothing yet except some numbers that US driving miles declined 9% in August. Impressive, but enough to drive prices down 50% - I don’t think so.

Demand may fray at the margins, but the world will still burn about 30 billion barrels in 2009 and existing supply will decline by somewhere between 4 and 9% depending on who you believe.

This does not include delayed supply because of project slowdown and cancellations.

Also, expect serious geopolitical problems if oil goes much lower. The Iraq was has strengthened Iran far greater than most realize. In fact there was a buried article in the financial times yesterday about a delegation from the United Arab Emirates going to Tehran.

The UAE knows that with large Shi’a populations in their countries and around them, they are vulnerable to Iranian pressure.

The trap is set. Don’t sell good oil or oil services stocks. You will be disappointed.

“when the age of oil ends, we will move on to the next source(s) of energy as we have over and over throughout civilization. there is no reason to believe that this transition will cause oil prices to go up without stop. I don’t deny that oil is a finite resource, what I question is the corollary of this fact.”

When the age of oil ends, and it must (because it will peak!), something else will come along. I don’t know if it will come along in time to prevent economic or climactic disaster but if society continues, it will require some energy supply.

Unlike gold, oil is a supply of energy and energy is absolutely essential for modern civilization. Oil is also a limited, non-renewable resource. This means that the price of oil will increase over the long term unless something reduces demand. We’ve seen economic recessions can drop demand (as we saw in the 70s) but as long as we consume oil and the supplies become harder to extract, prices will increase. This isn’t directly related to Peak Oil, just supply & demand. As we both know, the current price of any commodity is subject to a lot of variables. It’s as foolish to say that just because oil prices have dropped this year that they will stay down as it is to say that stock indicies cannot have an upward bias because they have drawdowns.

Anyway, yet again you confuse the Mad Max/Kunstleresque doom & gloom with Peak Oil. Peak Oil is a fact and nothing you say here or in the past offers anything which could change that. The impact on society is something that remains unknown. The exact date that oil peaks is unknown. The price of oil next month or next year is also unknown. Be careful that you don’t confuse them.

Ft leaked the IEA report that is going out next week. Non opec production declined by 6.5. With overall existing wells declining 9%. Russia and China were the cause of the 1999 drop in oil prices - the only major new producer along with Angola (now in Opec).

The speculative peaks I believe are bad for the economy and bad for the oil producers.

The question of moving onto a replacement fuel source requires so much work to be done globally it is hard to imagine such a concerted effort being mounted.

Atleast the ‘pressure’ seems to be off the peak oil date, where a rampaging world economy appeared to be ramping consumption beyond supply capacity.

All has now changed. I don’t think the theory has gone away just the date has been pushed back. Hopefully some breathing room for the next fuel source.

btw, I wasn’t ignoring oil, in June I wrote about it walking and quacking like a bubble.

Have we discovered some new source of oil? Are reservoirs being refilled? Please tell me, I’m dying to know.

As for the BP dude, “Peak oil has been predicted for 150 years. It has never happened, and it will stay this way.” Riiiight, very convincing. Oil peaked in the US as Hubbert predicted but because of a recession and dropping demand the peak was pushed out several years. Did this in any way invalidate the US oil peak? If this guy is not willing to acknowledge the US oil peak, this guy has taken himself firmly outside of the reality-based community.

Why is it that when oil prices were going up all of the Peak Deniers would always talk about overreactions and say how the future will change, but now that all commodities and stock prices have been crushed (yes, including oil) you act like the prices are set in stone for all eternity?

It would sure be nice to think that the falling oil prices will change everything but I don’t see anything that has changed to affect the Peak Hypothesis. Dates of the peak are hard to predict and will vary depending on demand and economic conditions, so that’s a debate worth having but what evidence could you possibly be looking at to imagine that Peak Oil is false? Tell me you look at more than just the current price of oil, especially when you were so quick to ignore oil prices six months ago.